Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  51.6  53.8  58.2  56.9  57.5  54.3  57.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  53.0  57.0  32.0  23.0  31.0   3.0   5.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 124.6 122.3  96.2  89.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  74.0  88.0  51.0   3.0  43.0  22.0  12.0  U  N  F  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  53.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  49.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.5  51.6  53.8  58.2  56.9  57.5  54.3  57.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%