Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40     89.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.1  57.9  56.3  56.3  55.8  56.0  55.6  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  24.0  24.0   4.0   2.0   7.0   5.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 109.6 107.3  96.5  74.3  74.3  74.3  55.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  54.0  40.0  45.0  26.0  -2.0  -1.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  54.1  57.9  56.3  56.3  55.8  56.0  55.6  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        0.6%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%