Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.5  49.8  52.1  55.0  54.1  54.6  60.0  66.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  13.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3  95.5  76.1  77.7  74.6  54.3  57.9  67.2  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  32.0  36.0   5.0  18.0   0.0 -50.0 -42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  56.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  47.5  49.8  52.1  55.0  54.1  54.6  60.0  66.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%