Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.8  52.8  56.6  56.8  57.5  68.4  71.3  70.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1  81.0  73.0  68.6  52.0  45.7  54.3  71.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  37.0  -5.0  12.0  -3.0 -39.0 -27.0 -23.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  47.0  43.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  54.8  52.8  56.6  56.8  57.5  68.4  71.3  70.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%