Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.4  57.5  57.7  58.6  69.4  71.3  75.4  75.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  14.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.6  84.3  86.0  62.9  61.7  65.4  78.0  79.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  43.0 -12.0  15.0 -29.0 -37.0 -40.0 -32.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  43.0  39.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  56.4  57.5  57.7  58.6  69.4  71.3  75.4  75.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%