Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172019 191025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70     94.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  65.3  77.1  84.2  68.8  63.2  59.9  66.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  34.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 125.1  89.6  49.2  32.7  22.6  17.0  15.2  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0 114.0  90.0  78.0 107.0 105.0 145.0 117.0  F  F  F  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  48.6  65.3  77.1  84.2  68.8  63.2  59.9  66.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%