Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172019 191025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     93.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        61.0  70.6  77.1  80.6  68.7  62.1  67.3  75.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  30.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0  92.7  56.7  34.6  22.0  14.0  10.9   9.1  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  62.0  51.0  93.0 104.0 139.0 147.0 115.0  F  N  N  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  61.0  70.6  77.1  80.6  68.7  62.1  67.3  75.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%