Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192019 191030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     41.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  22.5  25.7  15.2  15.8  18.7  22.9  28.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.2  32.7  30.2  28.4  29.6  29.6  27.8  30.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -21.0 -48.0 -45.0 -44.0 -79.0 -46.0 -55.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  44.0  40.0  34.0  33.0  36.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.6  22.5  25.7  15.2  15.8  18.7  22.9  28.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%