Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192019 191031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     39.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  23.9  19.1  18.8  22.3  23.5  26.4  36.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.4  29.0  28.4  27.8  27.3  26.2  29.0  32.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -48.0 -63.0 -54.0 -66.0 -20.0 -82.0 -69.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  41.0  34.0  31.0  35.0  38.0  42.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.6  23.9  19.1  18.8  22.3  23.5  26.4  36.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%