Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192019 191031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.30     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  18.9  24.5  28.4  33.2  51.7  51.7  51.7  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.2  30.1  29.6  29.6  29.6  30.1  30.1  30.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -51.0 -21.0 -57.0 -39.0 -61.0 -93.0 -93.0 -93.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  35.0  30.0  32.0  35.0  42.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.4  18.9  24.5  28.4  33.2  51.7  51.7  51.7  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%