Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     58.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  28.9  31.3  35.5  30.6  28.9  31.7  30.8  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  29.0  29.0  25.0  22.0  20.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 116.5 112.4 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  33.0  17.0  17.0  36.0  46.0  87.0 112.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.9  28.9  31.3  35.5  30.6  28.9  31.7  30.8  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%