Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191119 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     59.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  30.6  34.4  29.1  28.5  29.8  30.5  45.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  30.0  27.0  23.0  20.0  16.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 110.7 108.6 106.5 100.5  87.7  79.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  30.0  21.0  56.0  67.0  90.0 113.0 113.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  40.0  31.0  29.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.6  30.6  34.4  29.1  28.5  29.8  30.5  45.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%