Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  31.6  28.5  31.2  34.1  34.4  49.2  64.8  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  53.0  33.0  22.0  19.0  15.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 115.1 112.9 110.7 106.5 100.5  87.7  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  37.0  67.0  72.0 106.0 108.0  88.0  81.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  45.0  40.0  35.0  31.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.2  31.6  28.5  31.2  34.1  34.4  49.2  64.8  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%