Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191120 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  28.2  28.2  31.1  31.8  39.3  51.6  62.5  U  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  33.0  23.0  20.0  20.0   9.0   3.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 105.7 101.5  93.5  84.4  74.6  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  69.0  86.0  90.0 113.0  85.0  84.0  77.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  39.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.7  28.2  28.2  31.1  31.8  39.3  51.6  62.5  U  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.1%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        0.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%