Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  26.0  31.6  32.6  40.2  52.3  56.7  61.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  32.0  23.0  21.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 105.7 103.6  99.4  86.2  77.7  65.8  54.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  94.0 100.0 111.0 101.0 106.0  56.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  48.0  42.0  36.0  31.0  30.0  31.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.7  26.0  31.6  32.6  40.2  52.3  56.7  61.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        4.3%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%