Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  31.0  32.3  37.8  49.0  59.5  55.3  53.6  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  25.0  23.0  22.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 103.6  97.4  89.8  77.7  68.6  56.7  47.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  98.0  93.0  97.0 118.0  51.0  24.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  42.0  37.0  32.0  30.0  30.0  32.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.8  31.0  32.3  37.8  49.0  59.5  55.3  53.6  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%