Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  27.3  33.5  50.4  62.3  58.5  52.8  60.2  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  25.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  96.5  86.6  77.7  69.6  60.8  48.2  43.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 118.0 125.0 101.0  75.0  32.0  29.0  13.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  41.0  38.0  32.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.3  27.3  33.5  50.4  62.3  58.5  52.8  60.2  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        2.3%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        4.5%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%