Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     61.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  40.2  54.9  62.3  59.8  58.8  62.3  65.3  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  86.6  76.0  69.6  60.8  50.5  43.8  35.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 146.0 122.0  91.0  50.0  41.0  28.0  43.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  35.0  31.0  29.0  31.0  29.0  27.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.2  40.2  54.9  62.3  59.8  58.8  62.3  65.3  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        0.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%