Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  51.0  60.7  61.7  58.1  58.4  62.0  51.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  83.0  74.3  66.5  56.7  47.0  41.7  31.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   145.0 121.0  97.0  67.0  45.0  10.0 -21.0  -2.0 VF  F  F  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  33.0  29.0  30.0  29.0  27.0  26.0  21.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.1  51.0  60.7  61.7  58.1  58.4  62.0  51.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%