Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     60.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.9  60.2  62.7  62.0  61.1  64.1  52.6  42.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.6  77.7  71.1  62.2  49.3  44.8  35.9  27.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0  98.0  36.0  31.0   6.0  14.0   5.0 -26.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  30.0  30.0  29.0  28.0  27.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  49.9  60.2  62.7  62.0  61.1  64.1  52.6  42.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%