Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.4  60.6  58.4  60.6  60.0  56.0  47.4  40.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  72.7  63.6  51.7  47.0  40.7  31.6  24.7  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  46.0  37.0   2.0  -9.0   0.0  35.0   3.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  30.0  30.0  27.0  29.0  30.0  34.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  60.4  60.6  58.4  60.6  60.0  56.0  47.4  40.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%