Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80     54.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.3  65.1  62.1  48.5  50.9  55.0  58.1  47.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.1  68.0  62.2  56.7  54.2  50.5  48.2  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  50.0  40.0  31.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  34.0  35.0  36.0  38.0  42.0  43.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  60.3  65.1  62.1  48.5  50.9  55.0  58.1  47.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%