Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.3  45.9  43.2  46.8  45.6  43.3  42.3  37.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.2  44.3  39.8  34.7  26.6  23.4  19.1  12.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  30.0  49.0  88.0  30.0   8.0  -1.0  27.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  42.0  44.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  56.3  45.9  43.2  46.8  45.6  43.3  42.3  37.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%