Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202019 191124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     34.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.7  62.7  61.3  54.9  42.5  26.4  26.4  26.4 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          7.2   0.6  -4.4  -7.1  -9.2 -10.5 -10.5 -10.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  13.0  12.0  23.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  43.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  55.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  54.7  62.7  61.3  54.9  42.5  26.4  26.4  26.4 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%