Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    163.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  28.6  34.9  37.1  38.3  44.7  46.3  41.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  25.0  27.0  28.0  20.0  15.0   8.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 124.6 120.1 115.7 109.4 101.6  96.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  12.0 -11.0  -6.0  -2.0 -29.0 -45.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.9  28.6  34.9  37.1  38.3  44.7  46.3  41.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        4.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       14.9%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.6%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        9.1%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%