Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    163.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  35.4  38.7  41.7  47.1  47.6  47.6  47.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  39.0  45.0  36.0  13.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 114.6 114.6 110.1 105.7  97.4  97.4  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0 -22.0 -14.0  -3.0  35.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0  U VU  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  57.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.8  35.4  38.7  41.7  47.1  47.6  47.6  47.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.9%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       10.2%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        3.4%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        3.4%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        1.3%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%