Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    164.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  35.3  40.0  45.4  51.6  53.6  53.6  53.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  42.0  36.0  15.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 117.3 115.1 110.7 102.4  94.8  94.8  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  10.0   7.0  15.0 -16.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.6  35.3  40.0  45.4  51.6  53.6  53.6  53.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%