Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    165.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  38.6  46.9  50.7  50.7  50.7  50.7  50.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  36.0  13.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 120.1 113.6 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  15.0   3.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.8  38.6  46.9  50.7  50.7  50.7  50.7  50.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%