Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  43.0  44.8  49.2  49.2  49.2  49.2  49.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  19.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 117.9 109.4 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   6.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.4  43.0  44.8  49.2  49.2  49.2  49.2  49.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%