Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    166.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  36.2  37.2  36.9  39.2  43.6  43.6  43.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  12.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 118.6 110.5 103.0  99.4  96.0  96.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -15.0 -32.0 -29.0 -12.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0  36.2  37.2  36.9  39.2  43.6  43.6  43.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%