Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    167.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.9  41.5  42.5  46.5  49.4  50.3  50.3  50.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 110.5 103.0  97.7  94.3  89.6  89.6  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  11.0  13.0  -6.0  -7.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.9  41.5  42.5  46.5  49.4  50.3  50.3  50.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%