Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    168.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  41.7  52.7  60.2  56.3  45.6  45.6  45.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 103.0 101.2  96.0  94.3  96.0  96.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -23.0 -10.0 -12.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  54.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.4  41.7  52.7  60.2  56.3  45.6  45.6  45.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%