Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40    168.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  41.4  44.0  42.5  37.5  29.0  29.2  27.3  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   7.0  15.0  22.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.1  93.0  94.6  99.3 106.2 115.5 125.7 134.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -6.0 -11.0 -16.0 -19.0 -21.0  -9.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  36.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.5  41.4  44.0  42.5  37.5  29.0  29.2  27.3  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%