Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  46.5  46.4  40.5  36.7  34.5  30.8  31.6 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   6.0   5.0   9.0  12.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  91.5  96.1 102.7 109.8 119.4 130.1 134.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -11.0 -16.0 -17.0 -21.0 -10.0 -21.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  36.0  34.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.0  46.5  46.4  40.5  36.7  34.5  30.8  31.6 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%