Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    168.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  45.6  43.0  34.4  30.8  30.0  30.2  30.3 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  15.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  93.0  99.3 106.2 115.5 125.7 132.3 137.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -8.0 -18.0 -26.0 -21.0 -24.0  -8.0 -23.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  34.0  32.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.4  45.6  43.0  34.4  30.8  30.0  30.2  30.3 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%