Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    168.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  36.4  30.1  29.0  27.6  27.1  25.5  24.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   5.0   3.0  13.0  19.0  20.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  97.7 101.0 108.0 117.4 125.7 130.1 134.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -14.0 -35.0 -31.0 -26.0  -7.0 -16.0 -15.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  38.0  37.0  34.0  32.0  31.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.9  36.4  30.1  29.0  27.6  27.1  25.5  24.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.7%        1.4%