Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012019 191016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    170.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  28.7  27.5  23.5  25.6  27.5  26.5  27.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   6.0  12.0  12.0  24.0  31.0  28.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        104.3 109.4 116.6 122.4 126.5 132.9 137.3 142.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -16.0   8.0 -10.0 -21.0 -18.0   3.0   2.0 VU  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.8  28.7  27.5  23.5  25.6  27.5  26.5  27.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.4%        1.4%