Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092019 190813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.0  20.2  18.4  16.3  19.8  19.8  19.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  92.7  81.5  67.9  59.8  56.7  56.7  56.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   4.0 -19.0 -24.0   4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.3  24.0  20.2  18.4  16.3  19.8  19.8  19.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%