Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  19.6  24.6  28.5  31.4  31.2  33.0  33.5  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  21.0  19.0  20.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  95.0  68.0  57.0  36.0  29.0  17.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  19.6  24.6  28.5  31.4  31.2  33.0  33.5  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       30.6%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       14.5%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       14.5%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       29.8%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%       12.6%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%       10.1%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.6%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        7.1%        3.9%