Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.2  27.9  28.6  28.1  33.5  33.0  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  22.0  21.0  19.0  16.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 115.1 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  79.0  47.0  63.0  35.0  25.0  -5.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.6  20.2  27.9  28.6  28.1  33.5  33.0  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%       11.1%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.3%       43.4%       33.3%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       28.6%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       28.6%       18.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       12.0%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       35.7%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       17.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%       10.3%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        5.6%        2.9%