Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  29.6  30.4  29.9  33.6  32.9  26.8  19.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  22.0  21.0  19.0  14.0  10.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 105.7  95.5  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  56.0  74.0  48.0  43.0  26.0  11.0 -16.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.3  29.6  30.4  29.9  33.6  32.9  26.8  19.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        6.6%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       16.3%       28.7%       22.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       15.1%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       15.1%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%        7.0%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       16.8%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        6.0%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.1%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%