Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  32.6  31.9  37.2  38.8  31.6  23.6  23.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  21.0  17.0  13.0   9.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 110.1 103.6  91.6  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  52.0  60.0  38.0  -5.0  11.0   9.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.5  32.6  31.9  37.2  38.8  31.6  23.6  23.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       14.6%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.8%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        6.9%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%