Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  38.0  44.9  42.4  32.1  27.2  25.2  21.1  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  19.0  14.0   9.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  97.9  85.5  69.3  54.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  63.0  38.0  14.0   2.0  -3.0 -19.0 -38.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.3  38.0  44.9  42.4  32.1  27.2  25.2  21.1  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        3.2%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%        9.2%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        3.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        3.6%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        1.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        3.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%