Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  43.1  41.0  33.5  25.8  25.3  20.6  17.8  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  14.0   9.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 104.6  95.7  85.5  71.0  55.8  44.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  35.0  23.0  15.0  -8.0   3.0 -38.0 -22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.4  43.1  41.0  33.5  25.8  25.3  20.6  17.8  U VU VU  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        4.3%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%