Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.8  31.7  23.2  23.3  20.0  18.7  18.0  19.5 VU  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  11.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.3 105.1  92.4  79.4  65.0  52.9  42.7  34.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   0.0 -12.0   4.0 -31.0 -46.0 -23.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.8  31.7  23.2  23.3  20.0  18.7  18.0  19.5 VU  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%