Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  19.3  17.4  14.9  14.5  16.3  17.5  20.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  77.7  63.6  52.9  44.8  37.8  31.6  26.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  -5.0 -38.0 -33.0 -24.0 -26.0 -28.0 -20.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.5  19.3  17.4  14.9  14.5  16.3  17.5  20.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%