Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  18.6  15.6  15.2  17.2  17.0  21.0  26.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  66.5  55.4  44.8  36.8  30.8  24.7  20.2  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0 -34.0 -59.0 -48.0 -18.0 -28.0 -14.0 -14.0  U VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.8  18.6  15.6  15.2  17.2  17.0  21.0  26.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%