Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  15.4  17.0  18.3  21.9  27.2  29.9  28.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.7  57.0  48.7  42.4  36.9  32.1  30.2  27.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -50.0 -45.0 -23.0 -26.0 -21.0   4.0  14.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.9  15.4  17.0  18.3  21.9  27.2  29.9  28.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%