Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  17.6  18.5  20.5  26.3  30.8  30.2  28.5  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.2  54.7  48.3  42.6  39.1  36.4  34.6  32.8  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -25.0 -17.0  -7.0   6.0   2.0  11.0   2.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  17.6  18.5  20.5  26.3  30.8  30.2  28.5  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%