Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102019 190825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  24.9  30.8  28.8  26.3  25.4  25.4  25.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.4  45.8  44.0  41.7  40.1  38.2  38.2  38.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -6.0  -9.0   4.0   4.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.6  24.9  30.8  28.8  26.3  25.4  25.4  25.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%